Managing uncertainty in 2024: new paper by the Council of the EU


2023 was a year defined by many great things, but also with its share of problems, conflicts and uncertainties; and 2024 is following suit.

Thus, to give full context to the current problems, as well as possible solutions, the Analysis and Research Team of Council of the European Union has prepared a special report. Titled “Forward look 2024: Managing Uncertainty“, it provides a complete view of the most common factors of uncertainties and how to navigate them.

As the ART explains:

[The paper] aims to serve as a tool to help understand and manage uncertainties, and to outline both the risks and the opportunities which they may present for the European Union.

The contents of the paper center around three main pillars. First of all, the weakening global structure. Global fragmentation, specifically between North America and China, as well as the eruption of several conflicts, has lead to a volatile global order. The paper states that we are moving towards “a multipolar world”, and that the digital issues and AI will become prevalent questions for the EU legislators.

On the other hand, the global economy is undergoing a transition. Shifting trade patterns, entrance of new actors, the costs of climate change and the vulnerable supply chain are the main issues that the world is facing right now. As the ART team explains: “The year ahead will be defined by uncertainties concerning the effectiveness of the monetary policies implemented by major central banks.”

Finally, 2024 is a key year for elections. Many countries, including US, Russia, Venezuela and United Kingdom, are undergoing their elections here. The results can determine many of the policies that those countries will take through 2024 – 2028, and the impact they might have cannot be understated.

This document present an interesting and transversal read for the general public, regardless of the industry they work in.